Ever since the early days of Covid19, I have been meaning to share some thoughts around what a post-Covid19 world could look like.
But before we look forward, let's take a brief look back to something slightly similar that had a significant impact on our lives. The example that comes to my mind is what happened to air travel post 9/11. It basically changed our experience of air travel forever, for everyone. Some of you may be too young to even have experienced what that pre-9/11 world was like. For example, people travelling pre-9/11 internally within the US, could just turn up at the airport terminal, usually around half an hour before departure. You would hand in your bags for kerb-side check-in; grab a ticket; wander across to grab a beer/coffee/burger before walking through to board the plane. Those were the days!
The reason I use this analogy is two-fold. Firstly, the events of 9/11 primarily affected only air travel albeit on a global basis. Secondly, the changes were enforced upon us, for very good reasons.
On both of these counts, in my view, the post-Covid19 world will be affected very differently. The changes will be at least an order of magnitude greater than those post-9/11 and will be across many aspects of our social, business and political lives. But here's the biggest difference between the changes post-9/11 vs post-Covid19. The post-9/11 changes were enforced. In the post-Covid19 world most, if not all, changes will un-enforced. Why? Actually, the right question to ask is why wouldn't they be?
Let’s take remote working as an example. During the Covid19 lock down, most workers had to get used to remote working, as there was no other alternative. For some, this may have been new and/or hard to begin with, but most got used to it soon enough. On the other hand, very few would have missed the daily chore of commuting into work. So, post-Covid19, as an employee, would you want to return to a daily commute or perhaps prefer a split working pattern? I can perhaps guess which way most employees, who are able to do remote working, would choose to go. Here’s the additional benefit – employers won’t be needing as much office space. I know of several large City based firms who are already working on their post-Covid19 space saving plans.
Have you found that remote meetings have a further benefit (apart from no dress code for audio calls!)? Yes, the meetings tend to be more structured, usually shorter and to the point. If they are not, you can always multi-task (again, audio calls only!). On a lighter note, I have found that screen sharing tends to work with more consistency than trying to connect your laptop to meeting room monitors. Another plus point for remote working!
How about international business travel? If we are really objective, can we honestly say that this has had material impact on our business effectiveness? Of course, there will be exceptions to this, but for the vast majority, I would argue possibly not. Post-Covid19, I would postulate that, at the very least, the frequency of international travel would be significantly reduced. Here’s the bonus point. Lower international travel means lower mobile roaming charges (this is already down significantly during the lockdown phase), hotel costs and the rest. Not to mention, the personal health benefits of reduced international travel, more time with the family, helping to save the planet and, of course, jet lag.
What about changes to the social aspects of our life? I’m sure you’ve already seen the research done somewhere that physical social distancing has somehow made us connect more with friends and family than we would do in normal times. This is certainly true in my own case and long may that continue. But I have a strong feeling that, in the future, when we do connect with others on a physical level, it will perhaps be a richer and more cherished connection. In a similar vein, even if we take less overseas holidays post-Covid19, I do believe that we will cherish those potentially fewer holiday moments even more.
One of the biggest impacts of Covid19 has been on our health care system. However, one of the biggest positive impacts, as a result of it, could be on remote health care. Already there has been a spike in the use of mobile and video calls with GPs in the UK. A recent McKinsey study found that one in three respondents cancelled upcoming medical appointments due to Covid19. In the same study, roughly the same percentage (30%) said they would be interested in providers that offer online/video visits with a physician. If you think about it, what is there not to like about an online session with your doctor? No waiting time (usually in a waiting room full of sick people); private; secure and you could even record the whole session (doctor permitting), so you don’t forget any of the advice given.
Here are a few more post-Covid19 scenarios that are perhaps worth building on, at a later date:
Large corporates beginning to act like start-ups (eg. Speed, flexibility, agility)
Start-ups acquiring grown-up thinking (eg. Focus, structure, planning)
Local, long-term and truly flexible manufacturing (eg. Gin plants making hand sanitisers by design)
Competitors and Governments truly cooperating, for greater good, during normal times (eg. Beyond Google/Apple contact tracing initiative for Covid19)
Even if none of the above predictions come true, I am fairly confident about one thing in a post-Covid19 world. The frequency of our hand washing will have changed forever. However, the one thing that I would like to see the back of is social distancing, hopefully, forever.